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The Dallas Mavericks (21-38) are heavy underdogs (by 15.5 points) to break a seven-game home losing streak when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder (46-15) on Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET.
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Listen to the game on 97.1 The Eagle
Thunder vs. Mavericks Predictions for Sunday
Our computer projections model for this encounter predicts a final result of Thunder 121, Mavericks 109.
- Moneyline Pick: Thunder (-1163)
- Total Pick: Under 234.5 (computer predicts 230.0 points)
- Pick ATS: Mavericks (+15.5)
Recent Thunder vs. Mavericks Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/5/2025 | Thunder | -15.5 | 230.5 | -1190 | +740 | 132-111 OKC |
| 10/27/2025 | Thunder | -8.5 | 226.5 | -375 | +296 | 101-94 OKC |
| 1/23/2025 | Thunder | -11.5 | 224.5 | -606 | +447 | 121-115 DAL |
| 1/17/2025 | Thunder | -3.5 | 221.5 | -168 | +143 | 106-98 DAL |
| 12/10/2024 | Thunder | -4.5 | 230 | -182 | +152 | 118-104 OKC |
| 11/17/2024 | Thunder | -7.5 | 226 | -298 | +238 | 121-119 DAL |
Thunder 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City has a 31-30-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Thunder have a 10-7 record against the spread when favored by 15.5 points or more this season.
- A total of 35 of Oklahoma City's 59 games with a set total have hit the over (59.3%).
- This season, the Thunder have been favored 57 times and won 44, or 77.2%, of those games.
- Oklahoma City has a record of 13-1, a 92.9% win rate, when it's favored by -1163 or more by sportsbooks this season.
Mavericks 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Dallas is 27-32-0 against the spread this year.
- The Mavericks are winless against the spread (0-1) when playing as at least 15.5-point underdogs.
- Dallas' games have hit the over 27 out of 59 times (45.8%).
- The Mavericks have a 12-27 record in games they were the underdog on the moneyline (winning 30.8% of those games).
- Dallas has played as a moneyline underdog of +725 or longer in just one game this season, which it lost.
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Thunder vs. Mavericks Injury Report
Thunder
Thunder:
Thomas Sorber: Out For Season (Knee),
Ajay Mitchell: Out (Abdomen),
Branden Carlson: Out (Back),
Jalen Williams: Out (Hamstring)
Mavericks
Mavericks:
Dereck Lively II: Out For Season (Foot),
Klay Thompson: Day-To-Day (Rest),
Cooper Flagg: Out (Foot),
Naji Marshall: Questionable (Finger),
P.J. Washington: Day-To-Day (Ankle),
Caleb Martin: Questionable (Back),
Marvin Bagley III: Out (Neck),
Kyrie Irving: Out For Season (Knee)
Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Sunday, March 1, 2026
- Game time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV channel: KFAA and FDSOK
- Location: Dallas, Texas
- Arena: American Airlines Center
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